Cancer Risk Calculations
- Tim Carver
The following risks are calculated by BOADICEA using the breast cancer web-service. The ovarian web-service reports just the remaining lifetime risks.
1. Remaining Lifetime Risk
The breast and ovarian cancer risks are calculated for the following years:
for the next 5 years at one year intervals, i.e. age at last follow up +1, +2, +3, +4, +5
for the age at last follow up +10
for ages divisible by 5, greater than age at last follow up +5, and less than 80 years
Baseline
The purpose of the baseline risk for the remaining lifetime is to show the risk of an equivalent random woman from the population without any information on risk or genetic factors (i.e. based on population incidences only).
The calculation is carried out just with the target present (the rest of the family history is ignored) and the only aspects observed are:
sex
age
year of birth
age at first breast cancer diagnosis if affected
2. Lifetime Risk
This calculation is only done for unaffected targets.
The age of the target is set to 20 years old and all genetic and epidemiological risk factors remain the same. Other family members remain unchanged. The calculation is then for the risk to 80 years old.
Baseline
The baseline value for the lifetime risk, is calculated with just with the target present (the rest of the family history is ignored) and the only aspects observed are:
sex
age set to 20 years old
year of birth
The calculation is then for the risk to 80 years old.
3. Ten Year Range (40-49) Risk
This follows the same principles as the lifetime time risk. This calculation is only done for unaffected targets.
The age of the target is set to 40 years old and all genetic and epidemiological risk factors remain the same. Other family members remain unchanged. The calculation is then for the risk to 50 years old.
Baseline
The baseline value for the ten year range (40-49) risk, is calculated with just with the target present (the rest of the family history is ignored) and the only aspects observed are:
sex
age set to 40 years old
year of birth
The calculation is then for the risk to 50 years old.